Updating Expectations: An Analysis of Post-9/11 Returns

Other Titles
Abstract

This study analyzes how three groups of market participants—insiders, analysts, and all other investors—revised their expectations on New York Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in response to the catastrophic events of September 11, 2001. Our analysis reveals that, on the day when markets reopened, REITs with significant exposure to the New York area outperformed a broad REIT office index by 4:1%. However, we find that, according to several metrics of real market behavior, this anticipated superior performance of New York office properties did not materialize. Further analysis of market participants’ activity in office REIT stocks indicates that insiders were the first to lower their expectations (e.g., 99:9% of their trades in REITs with New York exposure were sales in the month following 9/11), followed by analysts (the vast majority of them revised downward their expectations of NY REIT performance in the first weeks of November 2001, albeit heterogeneously so), and finally market prices adjusted to reflect the underlying real market behavior; indeed, abnormal REIT returns had disappeared by mid-November 2001. These dynamics are consistent with theories arguing that the cross-sectional correlation of insiders and analysts’ information is an important determinant of trading and pricing patterns in semi-strong efficient market settings.

Journal / Series
Volume & Issue
Description
Sponsorship
Date Issued
2008-01-01
Publisher
Keywords
New York Real Estate Investment Trusts; REITs; 9/11; return expectations; real market behavior
Location
Effective Date
Expiration Date
Sector
Employer
Union
Union Local
NAICS
Number of Workers
Committee Chair
Committee Co-Chair
Committee Member
Degree Discipline
Degree Name
Degree Level
Related Version
Related DOI
Related To
Related Part
Based on Related Item
Has Other Format(s)
Part of Related Item
Related To
Related Publication(s)
Link(s) to Related Publication(s)
References
Link(s) to Reference(s)
Previously Published As
Government Document
ISBN
ISMN
ISSN
Other Identifiers
Rights
Required Publisher Statement: © Elsevier. Kallberg, J., Liu, C. H., & Pasquariello, P. (2008). Updating expectations: An analysis of post-9/11 returns. Journal of Financial Markets, 11(4), 400-432. Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved.
Rights URI
Types
article
Accessibility Feature
Accessibility Hazard
Accessibility Summary
Link(s) to Catalog Record