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Super Contango, Hyper Contango and Backwardation, and The Theory of Storage for Crude Oil, Milk, and Grain Commodities

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Abstract

April 21, 2020 is a day that will be remembered in the commodity futures market. On that day, a first-ever price drop occurred in the May 2020 futures for WTI crude, with prices plunging to a record low of minus $37.63 per barrel due to a set of severe short squeezes caused by diminishing storage availability and plunging demand during the pandemic. With the futures price merging towards the spot price before delivery being negative, the crude oil market appeared to be in a condition of what we considered hyper contango. Hyper-contango is a rare occurrence in which the cost of storage becomes so exorbitant that spot market owners or long-position hedgers are squeezed by a surge in demand for storage and the inability to dispose of the commodity. By integrating the concepts of marginal storage costs and mean-reversion, this research has developed a theory of storage that not only accounts for the impact of exorbitant storage costs on future prices during periods of hyper-contango but is also effective in differentiating between super-contango and normal contango situations, as well as extremely negative carrying charges that arise in a backwardation market. The research analyzes the price revision path for crude oil, milk, and agricultural commodities like wheat, corn, and soybean through the pandemic, the Sino-US trade war, and the Russo-Ukrainian war.

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49 pages

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2023-08

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Turvey, Calum

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de Gorter, Harry

Degree Discipline

Applied Economics and Management

Degree Name

M.S., Applied Economics and Management

Degree Level

Master of Science

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Government Document

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Attribution 4.0 International

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dissertation or thesis

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