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China’s Import Tariffs on U.S. Soybean Exports 2018-2022: Effects on Information Transfer between Markets in China, the U.S. and Brazil

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Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of China’s import tariffs on U.S. soybean exports in mid-2018 on price diffusion and information transfer relationships between futures prices in the U.S., China, and Brazil. To assess the information transfer relationships, we use the Reduced Vector Auto-Regression (RVAR) model to generate pairwise tests on the causal covariate differences between the U.S., China, and Brazilian soybean futures prices before and after mid-2018. Results show that previous patterns of price signaling between the U.S. closing and Chinese opening soybean futures prices, and the Chinese closing and U.S. opening soybean futures prices, have all but evaporated since the import tariffs imposed on U.S. exports to China in mid-2018, and recovered only after January 2020. This import tariff provided a natural experiment on the effects of a tariff on price information transfers between different markets worldwide as global trade patterns in soybeans changed.

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102 pages

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Date Issued

2023-08

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Keywords

Brazil; China; futures prices; import tariff; price signaling; soybeans

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Committee Chair

de Gorter, Harry

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Turvey, Calum

Degree Discipline

Applied Economics and Management

Degree Name

M.S., Applied Economics and Management

Degree Level

Master of Science

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Government Document

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Attribution 4.0 International

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dissertation or thesis

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