BENDING AGRICULTURAL BURNING TRAJECTORIES IN EASTERN INDIA
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Far removed from the agricultural fire ‘hotspots’ of Northwestern India, rice residue burning is on the rise in Eastern India with implications for regional air quality and agricultural sustainability. The extent of burning and the underlying drivers are inadequately understood in this region. The three chapters of this dissertation aim to (1) characterize historical rice residue burning trends in Bihar State and project future trajectories of change, with implications for public health, (2) garner quantitative and qualitative insights into landscape and farm-scale drivers of burning to inform policy strategies, and (3) quantify greenhouse gas implications of alternative, ‘no-burn’ straw management pathways. Chapter 1 found that fires are expanding and have concerning implications for air quality. Results project a 142% ‘business as usual’ increase in burning prevalence anticipated for 2050 with alarming associated public health burdens in October to December periods, primarily due to the fine particle pollution load (i.e., PM2.5, particles < = 2.5 μm). Chapter 2 found that the drivers of increased burning are multifaceted and can be examined through a chain of sequenced events in Bihar’s mixed crop-livestock system. The observed historical increase has resulted from a set of socio-technical drivers rather than from a single factor, such as combine harvester use alone. The decision to burn appears to emerge from a cascading sequence of events, including those related to household labor, livestock holdings, and combine harvester use. ‘No-burn’ pathways must consider value creation around straw, such as through livestock feeding and in situ management, but must be context specific to abate undesirable externalities, as found in Chapter 3. Chapter 3 found that from a greenhouse gas accounting perspective, the ideal prescription of residue pathways needs to consider whole-system factors, such as field hydrology. While the practice of burning should first and foremost be halted, from an air quality perspective, pathways such as residue incorporation need to be location-specific and can result in a -0.2 to 3.1 Mg CO2-e100y difference from the burning pathway depending on field hydrology. Through continued investigation and support under various policy intervention scenarios, there is a glimpse of optimism to ‘bend’ these development trajectories for increased sustainable development transitions in Bihar.
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Pingali, Prabhu