Using Cash Flow Dynamics to Price Thinly Traded Assets

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
No Access Until
Permanent Link(s)
Other Titles
Abstract
Are cash flows informative and predictive in valuing thinly traded assets? We investigate the extent to which cash-flow and discount-factor information plays a role in pricing thinly traded assets. We focus on pricing the various traded tranches in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) by developing an adaptation of the Campbell-Shiller dynamic Gordon growth model, which we term a Self-Propagating Rolling-Window VAR. We apply this to cash flows and actual bond prices. In contrast to stocks, we find that cash flows are informative in valuing thinly traded assets. Our predicted cash flow yields closely resemble ex-post realized transaction yields, and these predicted yields even outperform yields based on matrix prices especially for subordinated tranches. We also find that discount-factor information, while important is not as informative as cash flows in this setting, except after the financial crisis where the impact of discount-factor information increases somewhat. Our results provide a good representation of CMBS yields; investors can readily apply this algorithm to infer values of other types of thinly traded assets where cash flows are observable.
Journal / Series
Volume & Issue
Description
Sponsorship
Date Issued
2015-10-26
Publisher
Keywords
thinly traded assets; asset pricing; panel vector autoregression; Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities; JEL G12; JEL R33
Location
Effective Date
Expiration Date
Sector
Employer
Union
Union Local
NAICS
Number of Workers
Committee Chair
Committee Co-Chair
Committee Member
Degree Discipline
Degree Name
Degree Level
Related Version
Related DOI
Related To
Related Part
Based on Related Item
Has Other Format(s)
Part of Related Item
Related To
Related Publication(s)
Link(s) to Related Publication(s)
References
Link(s) to Reference(s)
Previously Published As
Government Document
ISBN
ISMN
ISSN
Other Identifiers
Rights
Required Publisher Statement: Copyright held by the authors.
Rights URI
Types
preprint
Accessibility Feature
Accessibility Hazard
Accessibility Summary
Link(s) to Catalog Record