Decentralization, Destination Choices, and Governance: Exploring China’s Hukou
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Internal migration in China constitutes an intriguing case: the unprecedented surge in internal migration comes at a time when China’s economic structure is transitioning from socialist to market-oriented while the hukou system, relic of the planned economy era from 1949 to 1978, has retained its power for the state to manage population. However, the effectiveness of a high or low hukou acquisition threshold in discouraging or encouraging immigration remains a contentious issue.This thesis aims to elucidate the link between the hukou system and population redistribution. Using macro-aggregated and micro-behavioral data, it employs gravity models, nested logit models, and logistic regression models to analyze the effects of the hukou system on migration from three perspectives: macro, micro, and institutional. Three methods are employed to integrate the localized hukou system into the empirical framework: a proxy variable, the hukou status of migrants, and a hukou difficulty index. The quantitative analysis indicates that internal migrants in China show a strong inclination towards upward mobility, despite higher difficulty of obtaining local hukou. Additionally, it reveals that the effects of the hukou system vary greatly across time, regions, and populations.
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Friedman, Elias