Short-Term Labour Market Outlook and Key Challenges in G20 Countries
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International Labour Office; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
[Excerpt] The latest available forecasts from the IMF and the OECD point to a weak uptick in economic activity in 2013 and 2014. This will continue to hold back short-term employment growth and hinder progress towards the medium-term objective of restoring the employment to working-age population ratio prevailing before the crisis. Persistently high and mainly cyclical unemployment in several G20 countries is heightening the risks of labour market exclusion and structural unemployment. In over half of countries, the share of longterm unemployment in total unemployment remains above its pre-crisis level. Overall slower economic growth in emerging economies in the last 12 months is weighing on the growth of rewarding and productive formal employment and on the pace of decline in working poverty and underemployment. The situation calls for strong and well-designed employment, labour and social protection policies applied in conjunction with supportive macroeconomic policy mixes to address the underlying demand and supply conditions of each economy. Only a few emerging and advanced countries, applying different policy mixes, have sustained or raised employment levels and seen a decline in unemployment and underemployment. In a majority of G20 countries labour market conditions have either improved only marginally or not improved and deteriorated, at times significantly so. This bears heavily on the underlying strength of the recovery.
G20; labor market; employment; poverty; economic growth