The Premortem: Scenario Analysis vs. Scenario Development

Abstract

Nothing ventured, with intelligence, nothing gained. Every human enterprise carries risk, some much more than others. Any chosen course of action may result in an adverse or undesirable outcome, notwithstanding the benefits it promises. As such, proper risk assessment and management are crucial to making plans successful. To offset risk, the steps recommended, more or less in the following order, are: (i) identify, characterize, and assess threats; (ii) assess vulnerabilities to specific threats; (iii) determine risks; (iv) make out ways to reduce critical risks; and (v) prioritize risk reduction measures based on a strategy.