The Worsening Shortage of College Graduate Workers

Abstract

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of occupational employment growth have consistently underpredicted the growth of skilled occupations. BLS currently projects that professional, technical and managerial jobs will account for 44.5 percent of employment growth between 1988 and 2000, while we project they will account for 70 percent of employment growth. Between March 1988 and March 1991 these occupations, in fact, accounted for 87 percent of employment growth. The BLS's projections of the supply/demand balance for college graduates have also been off the mark--predicting a surplus in the 19808 when in fact relative wage ratios for college graduates were rising to all time highs. We project a substantial slowdown in the growth of college educated workers during the 19908 and continuing escalation of wage premiums for college graduates.