eCommons

 

Frequency vs. Probability Formats: Framing the Three Doors Problem

Other Titles

Abstract

Instead of subscribing to the view that people are unable to perform Bayesian probabilistic inference, recent research suggests that the algorithms people naturally use to perform Bayesian inference are better adapted for information presented in a natural frequency format than in the common probability format. We tested this hypothesis on the notoriously difficult three doors problem, inducing subjects to consider the likelihoods involved in terms of natural frequencies or in terms of probabilities. We then examined their ability to perform the mathematics underlying the problem, a stronger indication of Bayesian inferential performance than merely whether they gave the correct answer to the problem. With a robustness that may surprise people unfamiliar with the effects of information formats, the natural frequency group demonstrated dramatically greater normative mathematical performance than the probability group. This supports the importance of information formats in a more complex context than in previous studies.

Journal / Series

Volume & Issue

Description

Sponsorship

Date Issued

1998-04

Publisher

Cornell University

Keywords

computer science; technical report

Location

Effective Date

Expiration Date

Sector

Employer

Union

Union Local

NAICS

Number of Workers

Committee Chair

Committee Co-Chair

Committee Member

Degree Discipline

Degree Name

Degree Level

Related Version

Related DOI

Related To

Related Part

Based on Related Item

Has Other Format(s)

Part of Related Item

Related To

Related Publication(s)

Link(s) to Related Publication(s)

References

Link(s) to Reference(s)

Previously Published As

http://techreports.library.cornell.edu:8081/Dienst/UI/1.0/Display/cul.cs/TR98-1672

Government Document

ISBN

ISMN

ISSN

Other Identifiers

Rights

Rights URI

Types

technical report

Accessibility Feature

Accessibility Hazard

Accessibility Summary

Link(s) to Catalog Record