Third Quarter 2013: Good Vibes (Nahenahe)
Liu, Crocker H.; Nowak, Adam D.; White, Robert M. Jr.
Our hotel real estate cycle analysis based on the repeat sales approach indicates that we will continue to experience an upward price momentum. This quarter, for the first time since the commercial real estate boom in 2004, all three of our price indices— large hotels, small hotels, and repeat sales of hotels— have positive price trends and are moving in the same direction. Hotel properties also exhibit a slight decline in the premium relative to other property types signaling that investors currently have lower perceived default risk for hotel properties. Our business confidence metric, along with the NAREIT Lodging/Resort index and the Architecture Billing Index, suggests that we should continue to expect to positive price momentum for larger hotels and our repeat sales index in the near term. We also expect a slight decline in prices for smaller hotels going forward based on the Consumer Confidence Index. This is paper number 8 of the index series.
Cornell; hotel prices; business confidence; NAREIT lodging/resort index; architecture billing index; HOTVaL
Supplemental File: Hotel Valuation Model (HOTVAL). We provide this user friendly hotel valuation model in an excel spreadsheet entitled HOTVAL Toolkit as a complement to this report.
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