Second Quarter 2013: Where Are We in the Hotel Real Estate Cycle?

Abstract

We introduce a new tool in this issue to gauge where hotel prices are heading based on past hotel real estate cycles. Mixed signals exist and depend on the benchmark used. Cycle analysis based on the hedonic index indicates that we are approaching a peak in large hotel prices in contrast to the repeat sales approach, which indicates that we are still in the growth phase of the current hotel real estate cycle. In terms of the current quarter, a reversal has occurred in the Cornell Hotel Indices, with the price for larger hotels rising in the current quarter while small hotels have experienced a negative shock. Hotel properties also exhibit a slight rise in the premium relative to other property types, signaling slightly higher perceived default risk for hotel properties. Our business confidence metric, the NAREIT Lodging/Resort index, and the Architecture Billing Index all suggest that we should expect to see another reversal in the prices for larger hotels, and our repeat sales index in the near term with both anticipated to decline. We also expect rising prices for smaller hotels going forward based on the moving average trendline for the Consumer Confidence Index. This is paper number 7 of the index series.