Third Quarter 2015: Have Hotel Prices Peaked?
Liu, Crocker H.; Nowak, Adam D.; White, Robert M.
The price of large and small hotels appears to have peaked, based on our Standardized Unexpected Price (SUP) metric. Hotel investment based on operating performance is in the black (breakeven). Indicators that hotel prices should start to level off or decline include the historical cycle analysis, a continued rise in cost of debt financing, a widening of the relative risk premium for hotels, higher total risk for hotels relative to other commercial real estate, and continued declines in the hotel REIT index, business confidence index, and the architecture billings index. This is report number 16 of the index series.
Cornell; hotel indices; Standardized Unexpected Price; REIT; hotel prices; HOTVaL
Supplemental File: Hotel Valuation Model (HOTVAL). We provide this user friendly hotel valuation model in an excel spreadsheet entitled HOTVAL Toolkit as a complement to this report.
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