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dc.contributor.authorTomek, William G.
dc.date.accessioned2018-08-21T17:09:16Z
dc.date.available2018-08-21T17:09:16Z
dc.date.issued1996-08-01
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1813/57725
dc.descriptionWP 1996-07 August 1996
dc.description.abstractFutures markets provide contemporaneous price quotations for a constellation of contracts, with maturities 30 or more months in the future, and a large literature exists about interpreting these prices as forecasts. It is often preferable to think of futures markets as determining a price level and price differences appropriate to the temporal definitions of the contracts. Futures prices can be efficient in reflecting a complex set of factors, but still be poor forecasters. Forecasts from quantitative models cannot improve upon efficient futures prices as forecasting agents; the models provide equally poor forecasts. Analogous ideas are discussed for basis forecasts.
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherCharles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University
dc.titleCOMMODITY FUTURES PRICES AS FORECASTS
dc.typearticle
dcterms.licensehttp://hdl.handle.net/1813/57595


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  • Dyson School Working Papers
    Working Papers published by the Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University

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