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Oil, Growth and Political Development in Angola
|dc.contributor.author||Kyle, Steven C.|
|dc.description||WP 2007-05 March 2007|
|dc.description.abstract||Angola is more dependent on oil than any other country in Sub Saharan Africa and most other countries as well, apart from a handful of OPEC members. Contributing half or more of GDP, oil revenues condition and distort every other macroeconomic variable in the country, a situation that has existed for decades. Appreciation of the real exchange rate is the main macroeconomic distortion resulting from these inflows of mineral income. The paper demonstrates a marked tendency for the Angolan Kwanza to appreciate in recent years, and continuation of this trend is one of the biggest threats to economic rehabilitation of Angola’s war-torn non-oil economy. Resulting economic distortions are quantified using an index of distortion based on Chenery-Syrquin “standard” growth paths of economic structure. Optimal savings and expenditure rates out of mineral income are calculated based on a permanent income approach to optimal expenditure over time. Finally, implications of oil revenue for the future political development of Angola’s main parties are discussed.|
|dc.publisher||Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University|
|dc.title||Oil, Growth and Political Development in Angola|
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Dyson School Working Papers
Working Papers published by the Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University