The Causes Of Indonesia'S Late Fertility Transition Stall
Indonesia's stalled fertility transition presents researchers with an empirical conundrum. While Southeast Asian countries that began their transition around the same time as Indonesia are now struggling to revive fertility from below replacement levels, Indonesia has seen fertility stall around 2.6 since 2002/03. Using data from seven rounds of the Indonesian Demographic and Health Surveys, I use decomposition techniques to examine competing explanations for this stall. I find that the stall is not spurious, and that it is not associated with low levels of female schooling or halts in urbanization. Instead, the stall is associated with increasing marital exposure among women with education, and women in Bali, and increasing wanted marital fertility among women with no education and women in rural areas. These findings raise questions about the effect of changing cultural and religious politics in the region, and the implications of this fertility trend for realizing a demographic dividend.
M.S., Development Sociology
Master of Science
dissertation or thesis