Three Essays On Growth And Development With Financial Market
The objective of this dissertation is to understand the role of financial market in economic development, particularly its economy-wide impact on income inequality, poverty, and employment. To accomplish this task, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (FCGE) model with linkage to the financial market is constructed, which conforms to the specific developing economy analyzed in this dissertation. In the first chapter, I construct the model to evaluate the distribution and poverty impact of saving and investment imbalances. I apply the model framework to a financial social accounting matrix data from Indonesia, an open market economy that has experienced persistent trend of excessive domestic savings since the 1997 East Asia financial crisis. The model is calibrated for 2006-10 such that the equilibrium solutions reproduce benchmark data on key macroeconomic indicators. Counterfactual scenarios are simulated to derive conclusions about the implication of excess saving on macroeconomic performances and welfare. The results indicate that when banks increase their portfolio share of risk-free financial assets, credit channeled to private sector's investment is reduced, which leads to higher income inequality, slower pace of poverty reduction, and higher rate of unemployment. I conclude that an expansionary monetary policy offers an effective way to respond an excess saving trend in order to achieve sustainable and equitable growth. The second chapter examines rebalancing strategies for sustainable and inclusive growth in Indonesia. It has been revealed in the previous chapter that excess saving trend in the aftermath of the 1997 financial crisis has ripple effects on income distribution, poverty reduction, and employment creation. Therefore, policy options that emphasize the quality and growth of both private and public investment should be of utmost importance to improve saving and investment imbalances in the economy. Further rebalancing efforts should also include promoting more public spending in rural areas, enhancing good governance on public outlays, increasing economic efficiency and productivity, sharpening comparative advantage, and expanding intra-regional trade. Finally, counterfactual scenarios are experimented with the use of dynamic FCGE model to highlight the significance of developing Indonesia's capital goods industries in order to reduce reliance on imports and increase employment in productive sectors. In the third chapter, an extended version of the dynamic FCGE model is employed to examine asset price bubble and evaluate its policy implication. Using general equilibrium as a basis for analysis, I generate an endogenous stock price bubble in the model economy through balance sheet adjustments. If corporate sector were to limit its leverage activities, excessive asset growth could be avoided and stability of the macroeconomic performances would be maintained. However, such case does not typically apply to low interest rate condition and strong business cycle trend, so I investigate policy simulations for fiscal restriction, monetary contraction, and policy mix to mitigate the impact of potential repercussions that stock price bubble can generate in the economy. The results indicate that standalone monetary policy is the most favorable option to implement corrective measures in preserving the natural growth of output, consumption and investment while minimizing the deteriorating welfare impact of policy enactment.
computable general equilibrium model; financial market; growth strategies; asset price bubble; Indonesia
Azis, Iwan Jaya
Bailey, Warren B.; Donaghy, Kieran Patrick; Christy, Ralph Dean
Ph.D. of Regional Science
Doctor of Philosophy
dissertation or thesis