An Analysis of the Consumption Demand Data on The DLA's Lead-time Forecast Accuracy
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Kumar, Vivek; Robert, Lo; Linda, Tsang
The Defense Logistics Agency generates forecasts for demand from military service warehouses (wholesale demand) using a double exponential smoothing (DES) forecasting model. However, the Agency will be moving to a Fourier forecasting model, which explicitly accounts for seasonality in demand data. We found that obtaining additional demand data from the military maintenance centers (consumption demand) will improve lead-time forecast accuracy in both forecasting models. In addition, we found that different incorporations of the consumption demand data are needed depending on the accuracy metric utilized.
LMI AND THE DLA WEAPON SYSTEM SUSTAINMENT PROGRAM
forecast; forecast accuracy; fourier; double exponential smoothing
articledissertation or thesis