IMPACT OF INCREASED DROUGHT INTENSITY IN CALIFORNIA ON SUPPLY CHAIN CONFIGURATION: BROCCOLI IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES

Abstract

California leads the U.S. as the largest producer of fresh vegetable products. Due to the geographic concentration of production, the increased severe droughts in California could threaten the availability of certain high-value vegetables nationwide. Given California’s central role in the U.S. fresh produce market, the food supply disruptions caused by such droughts are pressing the fresh produce industry and policymakers to decentralize production and distribution networks. In this paper, we develop a production-transportation model of the U.S. broccoli industry to analyze the effects of increased drought intensity scenarios in broccoli production areas of California on production patterns, product flows, supply-chain costs, and food miles. We find that the reallocation of production to the east coast in response to the increased drought intensity in California would only modestly increase the total supply-chain costs in the eastern markets. The decentralized supply chains would also reduce food miles and alter product flows seasonally.