Global milk supply remains abundant
This article summarizes Rabobank senior dairy analyst Lucas Fuess's presentation on global and U.S. dairy market trends at the Northeast Dairy Management Conference. Global milk supply remains abundant, driven by strong production growth across major exporting regions and supported by relatively low feed prices. In the U.S., the dairy herd reached 9.645 million head this spring, the highest since the 1990s, with Rabobank forecasting 2026 milk volume up two percent year over year, marking a second consecutive year of above-average growth. Rising component levels, healthy margins, and profitable beef-on-dairy calf sales are encouraging farmers to expand and retain cows longer. Cheese and butter are expected to reach record production in 2026, while nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices remain elevated amid tighter supply. Total dairy demand rose four percent in early 2026, fueled by both domestic consumption and a surge in exports. Overall, Rabobank projects a financially profitable year for U.S. dairy farmers, with milk prices expected to hover near long-term averages.