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  4. China’s Import Tariffs on U.S. Soybean Exports 2018-2022: Effects on Information Transfer between Markets in China, the U.S. and Brazil

China’s Import Tariffs on U.S. Soybean Exports 2018-2022: Effects on Information Transfer between Markets in China, the U.S. and Brazil

File(s)
Stelmach_cornell_0058O_11916.pdf (5.5 MB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://doi.org/10.7298/8zt6-zk91
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/114474
Collections
Cornell Theses and Dissertations
Author
Stelmach, Juraj
Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of China’s import tariffs on U.S. soybean exports in mid-2018 on price diffusion and information transfer relationships between futures prices in the U.S., China, and Brazil. To assess the information transfer relationships, we use the Reduced Vector Auto-Regression (RVAR) model to generate pairwise tests on the causal covariate differences between the U.S., China, and Brazilian soybean futures prices before and after mid-2018. Results show that previous patterns of price signaling between the U.S. closing and Chinese opening soybean futures prices, and the Chinese closing and U.S. opening soybean futures prices, have all but evaporated since the import tariffs imposed on U.S. exports to China in mid-2018, and recovered only after January 2020. This import tariff provided a natural experiment on the effects of a tariff on price information transfers between different markets worldwide as global trade patterns in soybeans changed.

Description
102 pages
Date Issued
2023-08
Keywords
Brazil
•
China
•
futures prices
•
import tariff
•
price signaling
•
soybeans
Committee Chair
de Gorter, Harry
Committee Member
Turvey, Calum
Degree Discipline
Applied Economics and Management
Degree Name
M.S., Applied Economics and Management
Degree Level
Master of Science
Rights
Attribution 4.0 International
Rights URI
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Type
dissertation or thesis
Link(s) to Catalog Record
https://newcatalog.library.cornell.edu/catalog/16219421

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