THE SOCIAL VALUE OF HYDROPOWER EXPORTS: CLIMATE BENEFITS OF THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM
Regional electricity trade has the potential to reduce emissions by reallocating electricity production toward low-carbon resources. This thesis quantifies the climate and economic benefits of electricity exports from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) to Kenya and Sudan. Using a marginal emissions framework, avoided carbon dioxide emissions are estimated based on electricity export volumes and the characteristics of fossil-fuel generation replaced in importing power systems. Avoided emissions are then monetized using Social Cost of Carbon estimates to evaluate global climate benefits. Results indicate that GERD exports avoid between 0.67 and 3.68 million tonnes of CO₂ annually, depending on export utilization. Valued using a central Social Cost of Carbon estimate of USD 185 per tonne, these emissions reductions generate climate benefits of up to USD 7.2 billion in present value over twenty years. The findings highlight the potential for cross-border hydropower trade to deliver significant economic and environmental benefits within emerging regional electricity markets.