Cornell University
Library
Cornell UniversityLibrary

eCommons

Help
Log In(current)
  1. Home
  2. Cornell University Graduate School
  3. Cornell Theses and Dissertations
  4. Interest Rate Parity with Credit Risk: Implications for the Carry Trade

Interest Rate Parity with Credit Risk: Implications for the Carry Trade

File(s)
Im_cornellgrad_0058F_11998.pdf (1001.58 KB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://doi.org/10.7298/rj5y-7476
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/70370
Collections
Cornell Theses and Dissertations
Author
Im, Toby
Abstract

The incredible profitability of the carry trade over the past six decades constitutes a puzzle for interest rate parity. Contrary to recent behavioral or frictionbased approaches that explain deviations from traditional interest rate parity, I examine the effect of foreign sovereign credit risk and associated sharp currency devaluations on interest rate parity. To ensure that the theoretical implications apply generally, the setting is a continuous time arbitrage pricing model driven by Levy processes. I derive the statements of covered and uncovered interest rate parity under credit risk. The model produces novel measures of sovereign credit risk and carry trade profitability – most notably, forward-implied default intensities and the difference of same-maturity futures and forward prices. Empirically, introducing credit risk into the statement of covered interest rate parity makes pricing errors vanish for Mexico and the G10 countries: The profitability of both the covered and uncovered carry trade are fully accounted for by a modest allowance for credit risk and currency devaluation. I find mixed results for a carry trade trading system whose long/short position is determined by an estimate of the risk neutral expected return to the carry trade.

Description
65 pages
Date Issued
2020-05
Committee Chair
Jarrow, Robert
Committee Member
Bailey, Warren
Patie, Pierre
Degree Discipline
Management
Degree Name
Ph. D., Management
Degree Level
Doctor of Philosophy
Type
dissertation or thesis
Link(s) to Catalog Record
https://catalog.library.cornell.edu/catalog/13254477

Site Statistics | Help

About eCommons | Policies | Terms of use | Contact Us

copyright © 2002-2026 Cornell University Library | Privacy | Web Accessibility Assistance