THE CHINA-CANADA CANOLA DISPUTE: MULTI-NODE INSTITUTIONAL SHOCKS TO A VERTICAL PROCESSING CHAIN
This thesis studies the China–Canada canola dispute as a trade shock to the canola seed, oil, and meal chain. Unlike a shock to a single product, the dispute affects multiple stages of the same processing chain. The thesis examines four questions: how trade measures affect prices, how trade measures change price transmission within the chain, who bears the welfare effects, and how trade measures affect value realization between seed exports and domestic crushing. The analysis uses 3SLS models, a calibrated welfare exercise, and a price-based value-added indicator. The results show that policy effects differ across products. Seed prices fall the most, oil prices rise under the tariff regime, and meal prices show different short run and long run responses. Trade measures also change price transmission, especially between seed and oil. Overall, the dispute is best understood as a chain-level adjustment process rather than a single-product shock.