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  4. THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON WTI CRUDE, MILK, AND AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON WTI CRUDE, MILK, AND AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

File(s)
Tran_cornell_0058O_11221.pdf (1.85 MB)
Permanent Link(s)
https://doi.org/10.7298/hbn3-cz84
https://hdl.handle.net/1813/110468
Collections
Cornell Theses and Dissertations
Applied Economics and Management MS Theses
Author
Tran, Tam
Abstract

A historic drop in the May 2020 futures for WTI crude was recorded at around minus $37.63 per barrel on April 21, 2020 due to the combination of rising supply, falling demand and diminishing storage availability during the pandemic. Thecrude oil market appeared to be in a state of what I refer to as hyper-contango. Hyper- contango is a rare event in which the costs of storage are so high that owners in the spot market or hedgers in long positions are squeezed by the demand for storage and the non-disposability of the commodity. The research develops a theory of storage that allows the relation between storage cost and spot price under hyper-contango to drive prices negatively. In particular, the research links a storage decision to the framework of marginal costs of production and utility maximization to demonstrate the pressure of dramatically high storage cost on the crash of spot and nearby futures to the extent that the crude oil market is in hyper-contango during the pandemic. In addition, the research analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the spot price, basis, arithmetic spot price changes, logarithmic spot price changes and arithmetic basis changes of WTI crude, milk and agricultural commodities. The research also compares the changes in basis and spot prices of soybeans between the COVID-19 pandemic and Sino-US trade war.

Description
99 pages
Date Issued
2021-08
Keywords
COVID-19
•
crude oil
•
hyper-contango
•
negative futures
•
super-contango
•
trade war
Committee Chair
Turvey, Calum G.
Committee Member
Kaiser, Harry Mason
Degree Discipline
Applied Economics and Management
Degree Name
M.S., Applied Economics and Management
Degree Level
Master of Science
Type
dissertation or thesis
Link(s) to Catalog Record
https://newcatalog.library.cornell.edu/catalog/15160145

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