Knowing the natural vacancy rate of a real estate market can yield highly useful information regarding future price movements. Past studies have been conducted to predict natural vacancy rates for office properties, but little research has delved into natural vacancy rates for the lodging market, and even less so within Hong Kong. This study aims to provide an estimate for the natural vacancy rate in the Hong Kong lodging market from 2008 to 2016 by using previous rent adjustment models, and also to predict whether the structural rate has changed over time.