1 00:00:00,030 --> 00:00:03,600 The following is part of Cornell Contemporary China Initiative Lecture 2 00:00:03,600 --> 00:00:07,950 Series under the Cornell East Asia program. The arguments and viewpoints of 3 00:00:07,950 --> 00:00:13,130 this talk belong solely to the speaker. We hope you enjoy. 4 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:20,279 Welcome back to the Cornell Contemporary China Initiative. I'm especially pleased 5 00:00:20,279 --> 00:00:24,180 today to introduce you to a person that most of you already know I think from 6 00:00:24,180 --> 00:00:27,419 our own Jeremy L Wallace - Associate Professor in the Department of 7 00:00:27,419 --> 00:00:31,170 Government. He's the author of Cities and Stability: Urbanization, Redistribution, 8 00:00:31,170 --> 00:00:35,100 and Regime Survival in China and many essays including one that I teach sometimes 9 00:00:35,100 --> 00:00:41,400 called Juking the stats question mark which I believe is pre stages his next 10 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,879 book project which will be called Seeking Truth and Hiding Facts: 11 00:00:44,879 --> 00:00:49,860 Information, Ideology and Authoritarian Rule in China. Jeremy is the leader of 12 00:00:49,860 --> 00:00:52,980 Cornell's project on China's cities which I think will form the 13 00:00:52,980 --> 00:00:58,140 core of his talk today. He's an imposingly well-loved teacher ,frustratingly 14 00:00:58,140 --> 00:01:01,230 well-loved for those of us who have to compare ourselves to him and an 15 00:01:01,230 --> 00:01:11,460 excellent colleague. I'm very happy to welcome him today. Thanks Nick. That was 16 00:01:11,460 --> 00:01:16,649 really more generous than I was expecting or probably deserved. It's nice 17 00:01:16,649 --> 00:01:21,479 to see so many people here particularly now with time change I know that at the 18 00:01:21,479 --> 00:01:24,750 end of this session from prior semesters that it's definitely going to be dark 19 00:01:24,750 --> 00:01:30,270 outside when we leave so thanks for coming. Today's talk is a little different than 20 00:01:30,270 --> 00:01:34,229 a lot of talks in the sense that I'm not going to talk about particular research 21 00:01:34,229 --> 00:01:41,100 project. I'm going to talk about a research team at least in part so with 22 00:01:41,100 --> 00:01:44,670 that there are a lot of good stories that we tell when we talk about China's 23 00:01:44,670 --> 00:01:50,790 cities. China's cities are the future - how many science fiction stories use 24 00:01:50,790 --> 00:01:57,210 Shanghai's or Hong Kong skyline to signify the world depicted is in the 25 00:01:57,210 --> 00:02:02,399 future, that China is the next place or the place that looks now like 26 00:02:02,399 --> 00:02:05,780 what the rest of the world will look like or at least the urban world 27 00:02:05,780 --> 00:02:09,979 will look like in the future. A colleague who recently returned from Shanghai I think just last 28 00:02:09,979 --> 00:02:14,209 week where he had never been was both odd and dismayed by its scale traveling 29 00:02:14,209 --> 00:02:17,690 an hour just to get into the city from the airport past high-rise after 30 00:02:17,690 --> 00:02:25,610 high-rise he said and which made clear where local power was shifting. It should 31 00:02:25,610 --> 00:02:29,780 be noted, this image in particular, if you can see this down here, this image is of 32 00:02:29,780 --> 00:02:36,140 course of a shanghai skyline maybe not of course, this is from 2010 so behind 33 00:02:36,140 --> 00:02:41,480 this tower so imagine how you take this picture you 're not actually in a 34 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:46,640 helicopter or any drones. There weren't really drones in 2010. In the same way you're in a 35 00:02:46,640 --> 00:02:51,200 building above this building and looking down there is now a further building, 36 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:55,459 China's tallest, the Shanghai Tower behind this one, by the building that 37 00:02:55,459 --> 00:02:59,980 we're all presumably in taking this photo so 38 00:03:00,250 --> 00:03:04,700 China's cities are the future. Second China cities are rapidly growing. This 39 00:03:04,700 --> 00:03:11,570 location is Pudong, right, so most of Shanghai classically is, was built on the 40 00:03:11,570 --> 00:03:17,750 western side of this river- the Han River. We are on the eastern side. This 41 00:03:17,750 --> 00:03:21,530 eastern side of the city has become China skyline if you look at images like 42 00:03:21,530 --> 00:03:28,100 you just searched on google or Baidu for China skyline or whatever kind of search 43 00:03:28,100 --> 00:03:35,000 engine you use these days you will find images probably most likely of the 44 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:39,670 Pudong Skyline. It's a skyline that kind of emerged in the past 40 years 45 00:03:39,670 --> 00:03:44,299 whereas Western banks have been filled and built up for decades only the past 46 00:03:44,299 --> 00:03:50,959 40 years as Pudong developed. Another kind of story that we tell about China's 47 00:03:50,959 --> 00:03:56,350 cities are that China cities are full of smog. Those of you who lived in 48 00:03:56,350 --> 00:04:03,750 environments like that on your left. This is of course an image, two images of 49 00:04:03,750 --> 00:04:10,110 two different times in Beijing - on a clear day and on a less than clear day. Those of you who have lived and walked 50 00:04:10,110 --> 00:04:14,940 in China cities at moments of time or frankly cities in other parts of the 51 00:04:14,940 --> 00:04:19,709 world that have kind of experienced that kind of smog probably coughed just 52 00:04:19,709 --> 00:04:25,650 looking at that picture. The smog here is stark and easy to see but the stuff that 53 00:04:25,650 --> 00:04:30,540 really matters in terms of health is PM 2.5 it's a particular kind of 54 00:04:30,540 --> 00:04:36,150 particulate matter under 2.5 microns in diameter and it is stuff that literally 55 00:04:36,150 --> 00:04:41,310 kills you kind of overtime in a cystic abases not as your breathing kind of 56 00:04:41,310 --> 00:04:47,220 walking down the street but it is overtime kind of shortening the lives of 57 00:04:47,220 --> 00:04:51,510 people in China's cities as well as in cities and polluted areas around the 58 00:04:51,510 --> 00:04:56,010 world. Why is there this pollution? In part is because there are so many people 59 00:04:56,010 --> 00:04:59,070 so one of the other things we know about China cities of course is that they are 60 00:04:59,070 --> 00:05:05,790 full of people. China cities are home to one in ten human beings on earth during 61 00:05:05,790 --> 00:05:10,200 the past decade nearly 200 million people in China migrated from rural to 62 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:14,280 urban areas- eight million more the equivalent of New York City. The city 63 00:05:14,280 --> 00:05:19,979 itself are expected to join them every year until 2050. So again these are kind 64 00:05:19,979 --> 00:05:22,950 of just basic demographic facts with those of us who think about China's 65 00:05:22,950 --> 00:05:28,500 cities kind of just kind of feel as normal although it does justify its 66 00:05:28,500 --> 00:05:31,680 importance I think it's helpful to think about for those who maybe don't think 67 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:36,870 about all the time. I mean this image in particular shows what happens when choke 68 00:05:36,870 --> 00:05:41,040 points in China cities in the transportation networks are tightened up 69 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,640 a little bit so this is the security increasing in beijing subway stops in 70 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:50,850 2014 following some prior violence that happened in Xinjiang i think the week 71 00:05:50,850 --> 00:05:56,190 before and so just the lines of people getting into trying to get into the 72 00:05:56,190 --> 00:06:00,050 subway. These are all people above ground who haven't been to make it down yet. 73 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:07,440 And yet at the same time China is also building cities that are devoid of 74 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:11,220 people or seemingly devoid of people. This is the quintessential ghost city 75 00:06:11,220 --> 00:06:19,950 image although oddly I can't find the source and date of where this image came from. 76 00:06:19,950 --> 00:06:26,580 The location is known - this is Kangbashi in in Ordos in Inner Mongolia but the actual time and date 77 00:06:26,580 --> 00:06:32,340 seems to have been lost even to a Google image search as far as I can tell. These 78 00:06:32,340 --> 00:06:36,870 kind of ghost cities are large-scale often vast urban developments where 79 00:06:36,870 --> 00:06:43,350 people have yet to come live and work inside. Rarely is the city as empty as in 80 00:06:43,350 --> 00:06:49,110 this picture. Eventually people will come in but their failure as urban areas that 81 00:06:49,110 --> 00:06:53,760 is their places that are built but not actually lived does not necessarily 82 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:58,260 translate into their failure as the instantiation of thousands of real 83 00:06:58,260 --> 00:07:03,960 estate transaction so this is a success in some ways. The government of the city 84 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:07,470 that built this does not necessarily see this as a failure just because it built 85 00:07:07,470 --> 00:07:13,890 it and no one came, built it and people bought that is not necessarily buy to 86 00:07:13,890 --> 00:07:16,860 live in the communities in which they live. 87 00:07:16,860 --> 00:07:21,330 My favorite ghost city image though is this one. I don't know it's something 88 00:07:21,330 --> 00:07:29,130 about this is in Lanzhou's new district. Something about this image just strikes 89 00:07:29,130 --> 00:07:33,690 me as futures that are wrong or futures that are just not going 90 00:07:33,690 --> 00:07:37,020 to happen, something about the silly unicycles that the guy is kind of 91 00:07:37,020 --> 00:07:41,550 riding in these big streets and these big buildings that are being built 92 00:07:41,550 --> 00:07:45,600 ostensibly to be full of people just there's never going to be these streets 93 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:51,390 full of unicyclers and bustling buildings behind. This kind of is just 94 00:07:51,390 --> 00:07:55,260 one of the kind of many different types of stories that we see in the 95 00:07:55,260 --> 00:08:00,870 juxtapositions with China. The last one kind of just general story I want to end 96 00:08:00,870 --> 00:08:08,510 with is this image. Here I'm quoting from a research team colleague Eli 97 00:08:08,510 --> 00:08:14,670 Friedman in a piece that he wrote for Jacobin. So this is a story, this image kind 98 00:08:14,670 --> 00:08:19,590 of has a story behind it itself. On November 18th the fire on the outskirts 99 00:08:19,590 --> 00:08:23,270 of the city of Beijing killed 19 people including 8 children 100 00:08:23,270 --> 00:08:28,350 skyrocketing rent in the core, the urban core of the city or in fact of other 101 00:08:28,350 --> 00:08:32,040 Chinese cities has pushed working-class people especially migrant workers 102 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:36,450 without local residency permits into shoddily constructed, crowded and poorly 103 00:08:36,450 --> 00:08:40,910 regulated housing, setting the stage for this all too predictable tragedy. 104 00:08:40,910 --> 00:08:45,240 Dangerous living conditions, exceedingly long commutes such as the image we just 105 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:49,890 saw, and exposure to health risks are simply the price of poverty migrants 106 00:08:49,890 --> 00:08:55,200 have to pay in order to access the booming urban labor market and yet this 107 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:59,820 image is not of the fire this image is of the government ostensibly responding 108 00:08:59,820 --> 00:09:03,900 to the fire. The Beijing city government in consultation with national leadership 109 00:09:03,900 --> 00:09:09,090 snapped to attention and it launched a 40-day campaign to address building 110 00:09:09,090 --> 00:09:13,560 safety violations. The real intention has quickly become evident to rid the city 111 00:09:13,560 --> 00:09:18,480 of people deemed extraneous. These explosions and demolitions of 112 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:25,290 those areas in which those people deemed extraneous lived are consistent 113 00:09:25,290 --> 00:09:29,490 with China's long-standing policies that dehumanize and exclude migrant workers 114 00:09:29,490 --> 00:09:35,010 so this image along with all the others are just part of the stories and one of 115 00:09:35,010 --> 00:09:41,400 the reasons why we are interested this group of people who are studying China's 116 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:45,720 cities are interested in kind of telling their stories and exploring them deeper. 117 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:51,120 That is the plan, that is the reason why we find these places so interesting. 118 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:57,450 These are cities and places of divisions as well as plans - they are in many ways 119 00:09:57,450 --> 00:10:04,320 the future but they are also not not a unified simple story to tell. The team 120 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,500 itself I know I don't want to dive too much in here - these are just some of the 121 00:10:07,500 --> 00:10:12,660 stories that one can tell about China's cities. Our research team-myself, Panle Barwick, 122 00:10:12,660 --> 00:10:18,330 Eli Friedman, Shanjun Li and Jessica Weiss kind of investigate issues 123 00:10:18,330 --> 00:10:21,270 related to China cities in lots of different dimensions in lots of 124 00:10:21,270 --> 00:10:26,640 different ways. We have economists, sociologists, political scientists and we 125 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:30,630 kind of use different types of data - interviews, participant observation, we 126 00:10:30,630 --> 00:10:35,820 use satellite imagery we use surveys we use kind of big data sources all to 127 00:10:35,820 --> 00:10:44,130 understand, to try to get at, explore the rich tapestry and just import of China's 128 00:10:44,130 --> 00:10:49,080 cities. What I want to do for the rest of today's talk is kind of talk about two 129 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:55,050 stories, two research projects inside of this overall project the team is working 130 00:10:55,050 --> 00:11:03,330 on. One is joint work with graduate student Jiwon Baik and one is kind of with 131 00:11:03,330 --> 00:11:08,459 a lot of the team members Panle, Shanjun and Jessica and myself kind of looking 132 00:11:08,459 --> 00:11:14,250 across national areas, cross-sectional important China's cities so these are just 133 00:11:14,250 --> 00:11:17,700 examples of the ways in which this project is moving things forward I'm 134 00:11:17,700 --> 00:11:23,790 happy to talk about either of them as we kind of at the end in the Q&A as well as 135 00:11:23,790 --> 00:11:30,209 just kind of as we move forward so again this image of the demolitions makes 136 00:11:30,209 --> 00:11:34,110 clear that China at least the Chinese government's perspective kind of thinks 137 00:11:34,110 --> 00:11:39,750 about areas in its side of its own cities as unwanted undesirable as slum-like 138 00:11:39,750 --> 00:11:45,870 - to use a particular term and yet at the same time this is the actual 139 00:11:45,870 --> 00:11:51,000 fire so the difference between the demolitions and the fire itself at 140 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:54,029 the same time we know that there are these kind of this opposite story. 141 00:11:54,029 --> 00:11:58,350 If these are areas that have too many people, that were too crowded, that the 142 00:11:58,350 --> 00:12:02,700 city thought it was unsafe, that they needed to be spread out, how in the same 143 00:12:02,700 --> 00:12:08,100 place can we have this different story and in general the way the Chinese 144 00:12:08,100 --> 00:12:12,209 social scientists have thought about the issue of kind of ghost cities and slums 145 00:12:12,209 --> 00:12:14,830 in China is that these are separate issues in separate 146 00:12:14,830 --> 00:12:20,050 places, that there are some places in China that are building kind of big vast 147 00:12:20,050 --> 00:12:23,830 empty buildings but no one lives in them and there are other places where people 148 00:12:23,830 --> 00:12:29,700 actually want to live and those are the communities you have slum-like areas. 149 00:12:29,700 --> 00:12:34,660 What the paper argues, what we're trying to argue is that we actually see these 150 00:12:34,660 --> 00:12:51,760 as kind of combined stories so this is Ordos- traditional Ordos, to use the pointer - is up here. This is where Google has moved Ordos down here. 151 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,970 This is where actually come rushing in the new pictures of 152 00:12:54,970 --> 00:12:59,920 the empty city when we think about where people live. This is where people 153 00:12:59,920 --> 00:13:09,310 traditionally live and so they build a new area down here and it was so 154 00:13:09,310 --> 00:13:14,020 successful even if empty. In this area they continued to build and build another yet 155 00:13:14,020 --> 00:13:25,300 another empty area sensibly people are hopefully going to live there and yet 156 00:13:25,300 --> 00:13:28,750 the story is slightly more complicated it's not just in the middle of nowhere 157 00:13:28,750 --> 00:13:37,570 that these empty areas are being built. In 2016 I visited Shenyang and outside 158 00:13:37,570 --> 00:13:42,640 of my hotel was this new complex the Shenyang International Finance Center. It 159 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:46,300 was interesting to me because Shenyang is a city that is often described as if 160 00:13:46,300 --> 00:13:49,660 any part of China is going through a recession or was in 2016 161 00:13:49,660 --> 00:13:55,570 Shen Yang was that place and this so it was strange to me to see this much 162 00:13:55,570 --> 00:13:59,200 construction - these are 40 storey buildings there's about five or six of 163 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:03,850 them going up across the street I looked up the project online afterwards and 164 00:14:03,850 --> 00:14:08,140 interesting to realize that these were actually the sideshow but these the 165 00:14:08,140 --> 00:14:12,520 towers that I was just showing you are these kind of small things that at the 166 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:16,570 bottom and that what they were actually going to build whereas two major towers 167 00:14:16,570 --> 00:14:24,130 including this one at over 500 meters tall - the Pearl of the North - I wonder who 168 00:14:24,130 --> 00:14:27,320 actually is going to ever use this building 169 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:31,940 or why would they build other than some people wanted to build something and thought 170 00:14:31,940 --> 00:14:36,980 symbolic architecture would be great and we're worried about the Eye of Sauron or 171 00:14:36,980 --> 00:14:44,720 any type of like symbolic imagery there. This is relatively undated - this is an 172 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:49,040 undated picture of the project from the construction - one of the many and 173 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:53,720 undoubtedly many construction who was building the project the 40 storey 174 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:59,360 towers that I saw over here over on this side of these, apparently this taller building 175 00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:04,220 and this is the shorter one it's unclear if this project will ever actually reach 176 00:15:04,220 --> 00:15:11,420 the heights the little over a kilometer high right 500 meters or not a kilometer 177 00:15:11,420 --> 00:15:19,370 anyway over a thousand 1500 high. So this, this idea is to try to say that even in 178 00:15:19,370 --> 00:15:23,960 the midst of a city Shen Yang is a major city of China there is emptiness there 179 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,260 is poverty there is emptiness inside of China's cities and so the the paper 180 00:15:27,260 --> 00:15:30,980 tries to make the argument and to show that these are actually taking place in 181 00:15:30,980 --> 00:15:35,270 the same city that it's not just slums and ghost cities are different phenomena 182 00:15:35,270 --> 00:15:39,140 happening in the grand expanse of China's vast organization but these are 183 00:15:39,140 --> 00:15:43,880 actually happening in the same cities and perhaps even in the same areas of 184 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:50,270 the same cities and we argue that this is happening in part because of the 185 00:15:50,270 --> 00:15:56,660 incentive and information problems in China's urbanization. Pictures of slums 186 00:15:56,660 --> 00:16:06,410 in China which may or may not be be destroyed or demolished. So the question why are 187 00:16:06,410 --> 00:16:11,510 ghost cities and slums simultaneously emerging in China and kind of even more 188 00:16:11,510 --> 00:16:16,220 pointedly why are they emerging in relatively the same places. We argue that 189 00:16:16,220 --> 00:16:20,480 this is because of what counts and in particular who is doing the counting, 190 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:25,920 what numbers are counted and what numbers do not count. And what do we mean by that? 191 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:30,470 I think here the broader argument that I make in the 192 00:16:30,470 --> 00:16:36,170 book that Nick is referring to that I need to actually finish writing in some 193 00:16:36,170 --> 00:16:40,940 point in the near future the idea here is that there's a classification of 194 00:16:40,940 --> 00:16:45,590 Chinese politics, that what matters in Chinese politics is numbers 195 00:16:45,590 --> 00:16:49,910 and numbers of rural Chinese politics until they started to kind of fail to count 196 00:16:49,910 --> 00:16:54,470 things that actually mattered .So the incentives are individuals inside of the 197 00:16:54,470 --> 00:16:59,060 Chinese political system, the cadre evaluation system and other types of 198 00:16:59,060 --> 00:17:04,339 issues that the leaders, that the local government figures are evaluated on a particular 199 00:17:04,339 --> 00:17:10,189 set of criteria and those criteria include GDP growth fiscal revenues and 200 00:17:10,189 --> 00:17:16,670 other types of statistics that political discourse which is focused on number 201 00:17:16,670 --> 00:17:22,070 statistics and facts, quantitative metrics of performance sometimes can 202 00:17:22,070 --> 00:17:25,910 fail to count various other things whether quantified or not quantified. 203 00:17:25,910 --> 00:17:29,840 So for a long period of time China's environmental degradation was not 204 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:36,140 quantified was not counted it was just off the path kind of unseen even if you 205 00:17:36,140 --> 00:17:40,190 couldn't actually see because of the pollution itself until they got a number 206 00:17:40,190 --> 00:17:46,040 until air quality indexes PM 2.5 received a number it's only then did it 207 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:52,340 start getting counted. Buildings count so you build buildings - they count towards 208 00:17:52,340 --> 00:17:56,450 GDP and then count towards employment. They are symbolically modern they are 209 00:17:56,450 --> 00:18:01,580 growth they are success. The debts that fund the building are often harder to 210 00:18:01,580 --> 00:18:05,600 count they're harder for central government officials to see similarly 211 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:10,130 the emptiness of buildings is harder for government officials at higher levels to 212 00:18:10,130 --> 00:18:16,670 calculate to check to observe at the same time slums are often people evading 213 00:18:16,670 --> 00:18:19,260 being counted. The government doesn't necessarily, local 214 00:18:19,260 --> 00:18:24,540 officials don't want or are not interested in the kind of the incorporation of the 215 00:18:24,540 --> 00:18:33,690 burden of looking after these migrant workers and so the general argument that 216 00:18:33,690 --> 00:18:39,210 we're making is that this system and it pushes in both directions, this kind 217 00:18:39,210 --> 00:18:42,930 of weird urban sicknesses that China faces. Both 218 00:18:42,930 --> 00:18:46,830 over building at the same time is not incorporating lots of the people who 219 00:18:46,830 --> 00:18:56,370 actually reside in China's cities. This bus station is a - everyone has a silly little story 220 00:18:56,370 --> 00:19:01,530 that is favorite - this one is one of mine. This is Tai Yuan's bus station to nowhere. 221 00:19:01,530 --> 00:19:04,470 There was a bridge in Alaska- the reference to people who don't get that reference 222 00:19:04,470 --> 00:19:07,530 anymore - there was a bridge in Alaska right a bridge to nowhere that no one 223 00:19:07,530 --> 00:19:13,620 actually took to some Kodiak Island because it was a government project and 224 00:19:13,620 --> 00:19:21,450 that's how we want to have it built. This bus station was built and from 2015 a 225 00:19:21,450 --> 00:19:26,310 new story emerged that from 2008 to 2015 it saw on average the use of one 226 00:19:26,310 --> 00:19:32,640 passenger per day which I thought was just a little bit over built for one 227 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:37,770 passenger a day. I've been told afterwards that well in Tai Yuan 228 00:19:37,770 --> 00:19:42,360 everyone knows that you don't use the bus station - the bus stop in your quarters 229 00:19:42,360 --> 00:19:45,480 but that doesn't actually answer the question "Well why do you - 230 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:50,130 everyone knows this in Tai Yuan - why do you go the bus station but for me it is 231 00:19:50,130 --> 00:19:54,360 actually gets out the fact that it's hard that to kind of think about this 232 00:19:54,360 --> 00:19:57,060 from the Chinese government officials' perspective - the local government 233 00:19:57,060 --> 00:20:02,130 official- they have a hard job they don't know where people are living necessarily, 234 00:20:02,130 --> 00:20:07,290 they don't know where demand will reside they have ideas about what is 235 00:20:07,290 --> 00:20:12,150 going to happen they have plans trying to direct that that kind of activity in 236 00:20:12,150 --> 00:20:15,420 particular directions as opposed to others they don't necessarily know 237 00:20:15,420 --> 00:20:19,520 exactly what is going to have why they can't shape things completely 238 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:25,280 and so they they build hoping that they can crowd people and move people in the 239 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:29,600 correct direction in their mind - they can build infrastructure that will be used 240 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:37,610 as opposed to be bus stations to nowhere. And so we have 241 00:20:37,610 --> 00:20:41,480 ideas about how we actually measure this idea okay so we know that there are 242 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,360 slums in China we know there are ghost cities in China but there are 243 00:20:44,360 --> 00:20:49,310 difficulties and we think how do we measure these things in practice and so 244 00:20:49,310 --> 00:20:54,380 these ideas kind of have well we're trying to do this on a large scale 245 00:20:54,380 --> 00:20:59,360 quantitative sense we could try to look at the housing quality - the Chinese 246 00:20:59,360 --> 00:21:03,200 census in 2010 collect some data on housing quality. We could look at the 247 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:10,310 institutions, so in China there are villages inside of cities and we could 248 00:21:10,310 --> 00:21:14,800 try to go and for a large number of cities try to count how many of these 249 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:19,220 chengzhongcun there were in a particular city and trying to use that 250 00:21:19,220 --> 00:21:25,580 as a count for slums - one thing that a lot of scholars have done trying to 251 00:21:25,580 --> 00:21:29,450 look at slums inside of China is to try to go to case studies, try to go into 252 00:21:29,450 --> 00:21:34,010 different communities, try to observe inside of a particular city to just 253 00:21:34,010 --> 00:21:40,250 travel and try to see where are people living, where are the kind of 254 00:21:40,250 --> 00:21:45,440 low quality housing where is this kind of idea of where is poverty a lack of 255 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:49,670 infrastructure, inability to access social services in practice regardless 256 00:21:49,670 --> 00:21:53,540 of the institutions or whether the census is actually picking these things 257 00:21:53,540 --> 00:21:59,810 up. One thing that we found useful recently in this paper is that local 258 00:21:59,810 --> 00:22:09,140 governments have posted online kind of bids to help reconstruct or reform what 259 00:22:09,140 --> 00:22:16,460 it refers to as shantytowns as part of a new government project to 260 00:22:16,460 --> 00:22:21,549 demolish and refurbish these communities and so we do some business kind of 261 00:22:21,549 --> 00:22:25,720 governments locally officially acknowledging the existence of 262 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:30,700 shantytowns themselves so rather than the outside researcher try to come in 263 00:22:30,700 --> 00:22:35,259 and declare this as a shantytown versus not - essentially we're using the 264 00:22:35,259 --> 00:22:40,269 government's own categorical listing of a community as as a shanty town when we 265 00:22:40,269 --> 00:22:43,840 think about it now this is we're doing this on a small scale you might imagine 266 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:50,230 this on a broader scale in a different analysis this paper is a relatively 267 00:22:50,230 --> 00:22:55,059 small scale least likely designed. What we're trying to do is to try to show 268 00:22:55,059 --> 00:23:02,679 that communities that for individual cities communities that have slums or 269 00:23:02,679 --> 00:23:06,279 that are ghostlike actually do also tend to have slums. 270 00:23:06,279 --> 00:23:11,019 I'll get to that a little bit more in a second. Similarly how do we measure ghost-cities 271 00:23:11,019 --> 00:23:15,519 - this idea of you know if you see it you see a picture of 272 00:23:15,519 --> 00:23:19,989 kind of a vast open space with no one there. It's a ghost city; it's hard to 273 00:23:19,989 --> 00:23:25,989 know and harder to quantify that it's hard to measure in Tina's just like I 274 00:23:25,989 --> 00:23:29,169 was saying for the Chinese government it's hard to measure 275 00:23:29,169 --> 00:23:32,679 emptiness it's hard for outside researchers as well and so we can look 276 00:23:32,679 --> 00:23:36,759 at this through land use data from satellite imagery from population data 277 00:23:36,759 --> 00:23:42,879 through the census. Some scholars at Baidu used cell phone 278 00:23:42,879 --> 00:23:47,529 data so where are buildings that are not getting anyone using their cell phones 279 00:23:47,529 --> 00:23:52,179 they could use that as interesting kind of source data which lets you know how 280 00:23:52,179 --> 00:23:56,889 much data Baidu or other Internet companies have about where you are at 281 00:23:56,889 --> 00:24:00,100 all times so they could literally track which buildings are empty all the time 282 00:24:00,100 --> 00:24:05,129 and which ones are not. You can also look at this in terms of 283 00:24:05,129 --> 00:24:09,190 institutions just like with slums you can look at ghost cities by institutions. 284 00:24:09,190 --> 00:24:15,369 How many new areas or new towns are out there a lot of these eco-cities or 285 00:24:15,369 --> 00:24:18,970 university-cities also tend to be ghostly at least at the 286 00:24:18,970 --> 00:24:23,980 beginning that is they tend to be built before people move in. Similarly in case 287 00:24:23,980 --> 00:24:31,560 studies it's hard to scale up traveling from empty location to empty location. 288 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:36,040 The political forces behind slums in those cities are kind of already talked 289 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:40,720 about a little bit particularly from the the migrants perspective right 290 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:46,450 Why do individuals live in slums? Often it's because they don't have the 291 00:24:46,450 --> 00:24:52,240 income or wealth to live in in better housing or if they do actually have the 292 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,240 financial wherewithal they're choosing not to ignore to send money more money 293 00:24:55,240 --> 00:25:02,370 of that remittances back to their home locations. Often this is kind of 294 00:25:02,370 --> 00:25:06,700 mitigated by impermanence that as individuals in China are incentivized to 295 00:25:06,700 --> 00:25:09,520 think of themselves as temporary migrants as opposed to permanent 296 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:14,770 migrants and so even if they again had the incoming wealth to acquire higher 297 00:25:14,770 --> 00:25:18,700 quality urban housing they choose not to because of when which they think of 298 00:25:18,700 --> 00:25:24,580 themselves. There is a massive urban rural wage differential that makes it 299 00:25:24,580 --> 00:25:31,110 difficult for those in with rural backgrounds to acquire urban housing. 300 00:25:31,110 --> 00:25:35,590 Further there is an inability to distinguish yourself or to separate 301 00:25:35,590 --> 00:25:42,370 yourself from your rural land in China and so this this property right issue 302 00:25:42,370 --> 00:25:45,580 prevents individuals from kind of selling their land and moving to the 303 00:25:45,580 --> 00:25:52,210 city whole-hog - there is this this legal tie to the countryside. We already talked a 304 00:25:52,210 --> 00:25:59,680 lot about this issue. The forces behind those cities are many and vary - property 305 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:04,390 market dynamics, the territorial status that is the kind of changing of land 306 00:26:04,390 --> 00:26:10,090 from rural to urban allows local governments to create huge amounts of 307 00:26:10,090 --> 00:26:19,330 profits, the kind of principal idea here is that in China there is not 308 00:26:19,330 --> 00:26:25,360 necessarily a need to to reside in property. Those of you who were in the 309 00:26:25,360 --> 00:26:31,049 China's economy class we know that in 2018 the China 310 00:26:31,049 --> 00:26:39,190 Housing Finance survey did a dozen major survey of people in their households in 311 00:26:39,190 --> 00:26:45,340 China how they came to acquire their housing found that over half of newly 312 00:26:45,340 --> 00:26:49,659 acquired houses are second or third houses as opposed to kind of owner 313 00:26:49,659 --> 00:26:56,739 occupied and that real estate is often a kind of a very very large and 314 00:26:56,739 --> 00:27:00,669 expensive savings account so rather than getting a toaster with your savings 315 00:27:00,669 --> 00:27:04,419 account like you used to get in United States you now get an apartment complex. 316 00:27:04,419 --> 00:27:09,820 That is that people are using because of the lack of other opportunities for good 317 00:27:09,820 --> 00:27:15,279 investment vehicles people are buying property as investments and so the 318 00:27:15,279 --> 00:27:19,779 physical infrastructure, the physical instantiation of that investment is what 319 00:27:19,779 --> 00:27:27,009 we're seeing. This image I include because I think it's helpful to 320 00:27:27,009 --> 00:27:32,379 realize that while China is gaining a lot of people and this it is actually 321 00:27:32,379 --> 00:27:37,929 losing urban density. What do I mean by that is that for the most part China's 322 00:27:37,929 --> 00:27:41,379 cities are building and building and building how further kind of spreading 323 00:27:41,379 --> 00:27:46,029 their wings spreading their spaces of building urban spaces further into the 324 00:27:46,029 --> 00:27:50,049 countryside to such an extent they're actually outstripping the number of 325 00:27:50,049 --> 00:27:54,249 people coming in. So even most of the big cities 326 00:27:54,249 --> 00:28:00,489 are losing density now if you go to may J they're like very dense places it's 327 00:28:00,489 --> 00:28:03,729 very like it's still crowded I'm not saying the Chinese cities are not 328 00:28:03,729 --> 00:28:07,869 crowded but statistically they are losing density because there's so much 329 00:28:07,869 --> 00:28:13,869 building that is happening. So the research design of this paper is 330 00:28:13,869 --> 00:28:18,849 relatively small and we look at 8 different places and the idea here is a 331 00:28:18,849 --> 00:28:23,409 least likely analysis - we're looking for slums and small cities that have a lot 332 00:28:23,409 --> 00:28:30,029 of emptiness that are categorized as ghost cities by other researchers that 333 00:28:30,029 --> 00:28:35,499 are ostensibly the least attractive to migrants right when we think about where 334 00:28:35,499 --> 00:28:38,810 migrants want to go in China they want to go to the attractive urban labor 335 00:28:38,810 --> 00:28:42,590 markets those are the big cities for the most part that's where there is the 336 00:28:42,590 --> 00:28:47,240 biggest wage differential that's where it is is relatively desirable the 337 00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:53,740 highest wages are and yet and so we're trying to see can we find people in 338 00:28:53,740 --> 00:28:59,810 slums in kind of like poor housing quality areas near areas that are that 339 00:28:59,810 --> 00:29:05,180 are empty in the smallest and kind of least likely locations and the answer is 340 00:29:05,180 --> 00:29:13,940 we can we can find this in kind of even the most remote empty of cities so these 341 00:29:13,940 --> 00:29:24,940 are just a couple of examples so on the southern coast of China - this is kind of a 342 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:32,720 relatively poor, new city district similarly kind of over development and 343 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:41,090 just opposed the slums in Shiliin Bogd in Mongolia - these kind of images so you can see in 344 00:29:41,090 --> 00:29:44,920 the background you really can see or not with this kind of relatively high 345 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:58,220 construction buildings over here with relatively kind of like poorly situated classical urban village housing right here. 346 00:29:58,220 --> 00:30:07,600 That's the first kind of general story that the project is looking into. 347 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:12,100 The second type of story is a very different one. 348 00:30:12,100 --> 00:30:16,440 One of the things that we were really excited about when we kind of got into this project 349 00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,460 is the different types of data, the different types of expertise that different researchers have so 350 00:30:19,460 --> 00:30:23,870 professor Weiss had written a book about nationalism and national protests in 351 00:30:23,870 --> 00:30:29,750 China in different Chinese cities and the two economists - Professor Bark and 352 00:30:29,750 --> 00:30:35,480 Professor Lee had worked on issues related to just lots of big data issues 353 00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,210 in a particular the auto market is something 354 00:30:37,210 --> 00:30:40,630 they were particular particularly interested in and so one of the questions that 355 00:30:40,630 --> 00:30:45,580 Professor Weiss always kind of had or people always asked her was what 356 00:30:45,580 --> 00:30:49,090 are the economic effects of these anti- Japanese protests that happened at 357 00:30:49,090 --> 00:30:53,799 various points in time. Do we know anything about the real consequences of 358 00:30:53,799 --> 00:30:58,000 them? There was no war. There was no conflict and so did they really matter 359 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:02,110 and so she had kind of shown in various pieces of work that it really mattered 360 00:31:02,110 --> 00:31:08,919 diplomatically. These protests mattered in the ground in a lot of ways. What this 361 00:31:08,919 --> 00:31:14,080 paper really shows through massive data of almost a hundred million auto 362 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:19,630 registrations is that people stopped buying Japanese cars. They didn't totally 363 00:31:19,630 --> 00:31:23,640 stop by Japanese cars but they stopped buying Japanese cars to the extent that 364 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:28,840 over 200 billion RMB of auto sales were lost by Japanese firms 365 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:33,100 in a couple of years after an Anti-Japanese boycott in 2012 and so we 366 00:31:33,100 --> 00:31:38,500 can really precisely nail that down in a way that Professor Weiss who had 367 00:31:38,500 --> 00:31:41,919 spent years kind of studying these and other protests and not been able to so 368 00:31:41,919 --> 00:31:46,840 one of the benefits of team-based research. So this image in particular is 369 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:52,860 kind of a Toyota dealership destroyed in an anti-Japanese protest in Qingdao and 370 00:31:52,860 --> 00:31:58,720 so the title of the paper is "Commercial Casualties" so the idea here is that like 371 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:04,809 do international disputes matter economically? Can we show that kind of 372 00:32:04,809 --> 00:32:08,500 tensions in an international relationship even relatively kind of 373 00:32:08,500 --> 00:32:14,080 minor ones like how many to remember the great anti-Japanese protests of 2012 in 374 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:18,549 China right? It happened. It was absolutely a real thing and news 375 00:32:18,549 --> 00:32:23,880 absolutely covered it but it was not a war. It was not some major 376 00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:30,909 geopolitical event on a grand scale but it did matter and so what we're trying to do 377 00:32:30,909 --> 00:32:35,470 is to establish the extent to which political boycotts actually do matter 378 00:32:35,470 --> 00:32:39,570 economically by using really innovative and intense data 379 00:32:39,570 --> 00:32:45,570 analysis so this is just some of the imagery of these protests. This is 380 00:32:45,570 --> 00:32:53,670 Chengdu August 2012. These protests were related to Japanese kind of actions to 381 00:32:53,670 --> 00:32:58,770 nationalize the islands. The precise details of of the dispute are not really 382 00:32:58,770 --> 00:33:04,050 the part of the paper. The heart of the paper is that there were these 383 00:33:04,050 --> 00:33:11,340 anti Japanese protest calls to boycott Japanese goods. 384 00:33:11,340 --> 00:33:20,280 This is a major kind of issue in international relations when 385 00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:26,060 we think about what is the relationship between trade and 386 00:33:26,060 --> 00:33:32,460 conflicts. Is there a relationship or is there not? Many have tried to say that 387 00:33:32,460 --> 00:33:36,930 economic flows and high salient sectors like wine and autos are unaffected by the 388 00:33:36,930 --> 00:33:42,570 deterioration of political relations. For the most part analyses like Davis and Meunier's 389 00:33:42,570 --> 00:33:47,220 are trying to look at trade data. They're looking at how many things do I make in 390 00:33:47,220 --> 00:33:53,870 my country and do those changes flow right do those flows change, sorry. 391 00:33:53,870 --> 00:33:59,220 Does Japan continue to ship as much stuff to 392 00:33:59,220 --> 00:34:05,790 China in the wake of this crisis as it does as it did before? What we do is 393 00:34:05,790 --> 00:34:10,440 something slightly different. We note that actually in the auto industry over 394 00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:13,800 ninety five percent of Chinese cars are actually manufactured domestically and 395 00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,010 so it's important not to think about just things that are actually shipped 396 00:34:17,010 --> 00:34:23,160 across the water but then we can think about this relationship in kind of terms 397 00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:26,640 of brands right. When you buy a car you think about the brand, not 398 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:31,980 necessarily where it was actually made. A lot of Japanese branded cars in the 399 00:34:31,980 --> 00:34:32,820 United States are actually manufactured or at least do final assembly in the United States. 400 00:34:32,820 --> 00:34:40,450 A lot of European cars are made in, that are bought in the United States, are 401 00:34:40,450 --> 00:34:45,639 actually done in the United States and in China this is the case as well. A lot 402 00:34:45,639 --> 00:34:52,540 of foreign branded cars are actually constructed and made through parts with 403 00:34:52,540 --> 00:35:01,810 Chinese joint ventures domestically. The argument that we make interestingly is 404 00:35:01,810 --> 00:35:06,400 that the boycotts right if there are a lot of people going around saying don't 405 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:11,050 purchase Japanese cars, this shapes the social desirability of owning certain 406 00:35:11,050 --> 00:35:19,110 goods, offsetting individual habits and its symptoms to free-ride. This image- 407 00:35:19,110 --> 00:35:23,980 we can't really tell that much so this is someone wearing a shirt that says 408 00:35:23,980 --> 00:35:31,330 "boycott Japanese goods" and then he has a camera around his neck which is a Canon 409 00:35:31,330 --> 00:35:35,560 camera which is of course a Japanese brand and so I mean it's possible that 410 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:40,960 he just beat someone up and stole the anyway it's clear this is the general 411 00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:44,170 story. This is the literature that we're responding to - the idea 412 00:35:44,170 --> 00:35:49,960 that people say that they are interested in boycotting goods but when it comes 413 00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:53,859 down to it most purchasing decisions are private decisions and people don't 414 00:35:53,859 --> 00:35:56,770 really know what to do and some people tend to just continue to buy what they 415 00:35:56,770 --> 00:36:01,119 buy. A camera is a particularly expensive good - you don't make it that often. 416 00:36:01,119 --> 00:36:07,930 Cars are even more so but it is the case that we might think about this type 417 00:36:07,930 --> 00:36:13,210 of boycott shapes the social desirability of owning certain goods in 418 00:36:13,210 --> 00:36:17,109 particular the community-level variation in strength of boycott 419 00:36:17,109 --> 00:36:22,270 activity - here we mean protests. If there was a protest in your city it wasn't just 420 00:36:22,270 --> 00:36:26,590 that oh we shouldn't buy Japanese goods but you knew that people thousands by 421 00:36:26,590 --> 00:36:32,200 the thousands in your city were on the streets boycotting calling for a boycott 422 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:37,640 of Chinese or Japanese goods, they might, or you might 423 00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:41,839 not be interested in buying that good. Now whether that's because this is a 424 00:36:41,839 --> 00:36:47,510 conscious thing or that is you're scared of buying a good you really want to 425 00:36:47,510 --> 00:36:50,569 buy the Japanese car you think it's higher quality and you're frustrated 426 00:36:50,569 --> 00:36:54,140 that you're concerned that your neighbors might destroy it or think 427 00:36:54,140 --> 00:36:58,430 worse of you or your kind of idea about the value of it has gone down 428 00:36:58,430 --> 00:37:06,079 because of this protest is something we are open to. As I said these 429 00:37:06,079 --> 00:37:10,730 are locally produced foreign-branded goods which is important because most cars in 430 00:37:10,730 --> 00:37:15,650 China are made in China. We have spatially disaggregated boycott activity. We know 431 00:37:15,650 --> 00:37:20,300 the location of protests and we have all car registrations in China aggregated to 432 00:37:20,300 --> 00:37:27,400 the city-month-brand, that is we have data at the level of Ithaca-November 433 00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:34,579 Subaru. So at this level we have 1.2 million observations . We have 84 434 00:37:34,579 --> 00:37:39,920 million registrations that is every car registered every car that was purchased 435 00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:49,339 in China from 2009 to 2015 is in our data set. This 84 million kind of just is 436 00:37:49,339 --> 00:37:53,200 a big number that's twice as many cars as in France 437 00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:58,730 anyway just to give you a sense of the scale of this data, about the same number 438 00:37:58,730 --> 00:38:06,470 of cars is in Brazil we find that this boycott from August 2012 to the end of 439 00:38:06,470 --> 00:38:14,059 the second period 2015 knocked out about 1.1 million Japanese car sales and it 440 00:38:14,059 --> 00:38:15,140 was much stronger in cities that experienced anti-japanese protests. 441 00:38:15,140 --> 00:38:24,140 This is the irony story - we think this is kind of a social penalty, 442 00:38:24,140 --> 00:38:30,319 stigma or risk or there is something kind of innate to yourself if you see you are 443 00:38:30,319 --> 00:38:35,359 no longer interested in Japanese brands, you kind of see a Honda ad and it 444 00:38:35,359 --> 00:38:41,020 just doesn't speak to you in the way that it used to. The islands themselves 445 00:38:41,020 --> 00:38:45,190 look lovely to visit I don't recommend visiting 446 00:38:45,310 --> 00:38:51,190 because activists are from the Japanese or the Chinese side arrested by the Japanese. 447 00:38:51,190 --> 00:38:55,930 Interestingly sometimes the activists go together so this is a Taiwanese flag 448 00:38:55,930 --> 00:39:01,050 right anyway so it's an interesting kind of bit of cultural unity situation. 449 00:39:01,050 --> 00:39:06,240 This is an anti-Japanese protest. 450 00:39:06,240 --> 00:39:13,080 Most cities around 208 of the 287 kind of major cities of China had 451 00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:19,990 protests - some of these were quite violent. This was a particular story in 452 00:39:19,990 --> 00:39:25,840 Xi'an where individual was attacked inside his Corolla, dragged outside-the 453 00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:32,380 car itself was flipped. He was beaten - I think he he did survive but 454 00:39:32,380 --> 00:39:38,920 it was a particularly violent story. These kinds of activities of the 455 00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:44,890 boycott Japanese goods were quite common across China. In some ways the automobile 456 00:39:44,890 --> 00:39:48,720 industry is a more likely case - were more likely to see this type of a boycott 457 00:39:48,720 --> 00:39:52,840 mattering in the automobile district because there is a strong national 458 00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:57,190 identification of car brands - you know when you buy a car you think about the 459 00:39:57,190 --> 00:40:02,380 country of origin of the brand. It is a relatively highly visible, easily defaced goods. 460 00:40:02,380 --> 00:40:08,140 It's a public good right- it's not a public good in political 461 00:40:08,140 --> 00:40:12,160 science or economics terms but it is a publicly visible good. It is on the 462 00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:16,120 street. There are lots of substitutes - you can buy other types of goods, it's not 463 00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:22,000 like this is the only type of good you could buy. On the other hand cars are 464 00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:26,350 kind of highly considered - you don't buy cars that often nor are you really going 465 00:40:26,350 --> 00:40:29,600 to change your mind just because there was this protest a 466 00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:33,560 couple of months ago especially if it's it's not no longer August people are no 467 00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:37,190 longer on the streets but it's November you are really no longer gonna buy a car 468 00:40:37,190 --> 00:40:42,800 because of this particular issue. Firms were also highly motivated to prevent 469 00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:46,160 losses and offered lots of incentives in order to continue to make it. 470 00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:49,190 And again remember these are mostly made in China 471 00:40:49,190 --> 00:40:52,070 so this is not actually going to put Japanese workers out of work. You're 472 00:40:52,070 --> 00:40:57,770 punishing Chinese joint venture employees. This is the summary of the 473 00:40:57,770 --> 00:41:02,060 story - this is market share across lots of different types of brands over a 474 00:41:02,060 --> 00:41:05,390 month-by-month so things do change. We're talking about 475 00:41:05,390 --> 00:41:09,410 this slight negative effect for Japan. This is our story. 476 00:41:09,410 --> 00:41:13,430 This is the biggest particular individual change over a series like one 477 00:41:13,430 --> 00:41:20,120 month period in the entire data set. It's this massive drop in Japanese market 478 00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:27,170 share which it never really returns to even by 2015. This, when you look at 479 00:41:27,170 --> 00:41:31,700 it, doesn't seem that dramatic - "oh no we're moving from 26 down to 16 480 00:41:31,700 --> 00:41:36,260 percent" - but if you remember that Chinese auto market by this time is the 481 00:41:36,260 --> 00:41:40,400 largest auto market in the world, bigger than the United States market and so 482 00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:45,898 each individual percentage point is something that Toyota would kind of 483 00:41:45,898 --> 00:41:51,860 fight over or various automakers are really kind of fighting over and so 484 00:41:51,860 --> 00:41:55,810 this story we can go in lots of details of the various slides really do 485 00:41:55,810 --> 00:42:01,220 create that story but the fact is it's quite real and it's really 486 00:42:01,220 --> 00:42:05,960 there. This slide I'll just kind of note - this is to show that if you have a 487 00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:11,390 protest the effect is even more negative than if you just at the national level. 488 00:42:11,390 --> 00:42:15,860 So Sydney - the national level experience - kind of a loss of around 489 00:42:15,860 --> 00:42:21,620 eight to ten percent of market share that those are doubled for cities that 490 00:42:21,620 --> 00:42:28,160 actually have protests. So we have lots of stories and we can tell lots but I 491 00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:35,750 want to kind of end on this point which is that not just on fire but that the 492 00:42:35,750 --> 00:42:37,770 nice thing about team research is that you can do 493 00:42:37,770 --> 00:42:42,660 lots of different things and it's really exciting to be part of this team if you 494 00:42:42,660 --> 00:42:45,990 are interested in China's cities, if you're interested in urbanization or in China 495 00:42:45,990 --> 00:42:50,920 in general this is we're currently in a year three of the three year plan 496 00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:54,840 but I think we're going to continue exploring these issues down into the 497 00:42:54,840 --> 00:43:05,909 future so with that I'll end and look forward to your questions. Thanks.